GET OUT.  Last week I blogged about how little guys cannot win by trading the markets.  They can buy and hold and make money over time, but the strategy of winning on a day to day or month to month basis by watching and staying ahead of the market is just a fantasy.  But just as many people win at that as win in Las Vegas.  That of course does not include all those people who say they won, but really didn’t. 

I have been watching the market with all its volatility over these past weeks and have made it a point to discuss the markets with almost everyone I meet.  Experts (not brokers) agree now is the time to stand on the sidelines.  One expert told me specifically that by mid autumn sell all.  Then you will not be affected when the market tanks and then eventually you can buy back in.  The problem is he doesn’t know when it will be time to buy back in. 

His theory is simple.  We are a consumption economy.  Consumers have fueled that econonmy because of availability of mortgage money.  That will become harder to find, and consumers will stop spending.  That will lift the mask off the economy which has very little strength beyond consumer spending.  Once the spending stops, the commercial enterprises will find it tougher and tougher to meet their bottom lines and they will stop that will create a downward spiral.  Eventually the next President, the Fed and the world economy will do something that will start a positive cycle again.  I asked is that the spring of 09, and he says at earliest, and maybe that is wishful thinking.  So he says get out now. 

I spoke to brokers and analysts and they say there really isn’t a major problem at all.  The markets are all up for the year and are up even more for the last 12 months.  So while we are going through a volatile time right now, don’t worry, stay the course.    Unfortunately, liberal blogger that I am, that phrase now rings as what people say when they know something isn’t right, but they don’t want you to think about it.  So while I may stay the course with my portfolio of invested market paper, I do believe that it is time to think about hiding your assets in vehicles other than stocks.  Real Estate might be a new frontier, especially as you can vulture pick and by some foreclosures at prices substantially less than market.  The problem is when the market is declining what is less than market.  But while the thought of buying and holding makes sense, it may make more sense to sell and hold so that when you come back in to the stock market or the real estate market you will have funds available to become a vulture.